Consumer confidence just hit its lowest level since Covid, and CFOs are bracing for a recession. Are we headed for trouble, or is this just noise? Here’s what the data (and sentiment) are telling us.
Signals of a Slowdown
The Consumer Confidence report for March just dropped, and… yikes! It’s at its lowest level since Covid. Not exactly a vote of confidence in the economy. The Consumer Expectation report? Even worse… its lowest reading in over 12 years.
Now, I don’t put too much stock (pun intended) in these reports, but they do offer a glimpse into the mindset of everyday consumers. And in case you didn’t know, consumer sentiment is a huge driver of the economy.
Here’s the deal…
When people feel a recession is coming, they don’t spend—they save. Why? Fear. Fear of rising prices, job losses, or just general uncertainty. And when people stop spending, businesses take a hit.
But what really caught my eye was CNBC’s latest Q1 CFO survey. These are the people managing corporate money, and 75% of them think we’re headed for a recession. 60% think it will happen in 2025, and another 15% say 2026. For context, in Q4, only 7% of CFOs thought a recession was on the horizon. That’s a massive shift in sentiment.
So, what’s spooking the suits?
- Tariffs (30%) – Trade tensions could push prices up.
- Reinflation (25%) – Higher costs making a comeback.
- Consumer Demand (20%) – People tightening their wallets.
Oh, and 90% of CFOs agree: tariffs = higher inflation.
Now, I don’t know about you, but I tend to listen to CFOs over politicians when it comes to money matters. When you pair this survey with declining consumer confidence, we’re seeing a major shift in economic sentiment.
And perception? It’s huge in investing. When people believe the economy is strong, they invest. When they don’t… well, you get the picture.
We’re keeping our peepers peeled 👀 for more data. Stay tuned.
Portfolio Update
All we did this week was use our cash to pick up more shares of FATBP and THTA. Nothing new to report really, as I’m socking away cash in THTA and adding to my positions as I see prices hit lows.
Again, you buy when things are on sale, not panic sell and lock in losses. Down markets are the best time to grow your portfolio and dividend income.
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