Results From Last Macro Trend Plays

Back on December 20, 2024 I stated a few things:

• Nuclear stocks would pop off, and they have.
• Boring old electric utilities would pop off and they have.
• Oil stocks would pop off within 2 to 4 years so stocking up on undervalued oil stocks would be smart play, this is too early to tell.
• Data centers would be huge and they have.
• I also stated NVDA wouldn’t be the biggest gaining AI stock, and I’m sure by the end of 2025 this will be accurate.
• I said REITs would be a good play due to interest rate cuts, well you can’t win them all, but we may get 1 cut this year that will help REITs.
• I said good, well run BDCs would pop off, and they have.
• I said big banks and crypto related investments would pop off, and boy have they.

We’ll do a deep dive on my 2025 predictions later at the end of the year. I just wanted to remind you all where I thought we would be going. Why? Because I think what we’re about to discuss is just as important as the 2025 predictions I made in 2024.

Economic Climate To Be Aware Of

So what are the macrotrends that are about to impact your portfolio the remainder of the year?

Global economic slowdown, especially in the United States

GDP projections for the US are a 1.8% growth, as compared to 2.8% growth in 2024. This is a substranitail decline in growth, and the number one reason for this decline is tariffs. Projections for global growth are around 2.9%, which is down from 2024 where growth clocked in at 3.3%. The culprit is again tariffs. The uncertain US trading policies are causing havoc globally. The risk of a US recession currently sits at 40%-60% depending on whos ever model you look at. Believe it or not this high number is down from 2024 where projections were 80%. The main areas of concern are tariffs, consumer sentiment and inflation. The scarier projections stem from 2026, where US growth is projected to be 1% and global growth is projected to be 2.8%. SO again the US economy is projected to be much worse than the global market.

Monetary policy

The Fed, who once was projected to cut rates 3 to 4 times in 2025, most likely will cut rates 1 time in 2025 and this is the best case scenario. Globally, monetary easing will continue. Whereas globally the interest rates range from -2% (Japan) to 4.9% (Indonesia and Phillipines). I fully expect global rates to be cut to a range of -2% to 3.5% by the end of 2025/beginning of 2026. US rates, however, will remain elevated due to higher inflation combined with a resilient labor market. I think 1 cut to the 4% to 4.25% range. 2026 is set to have at least 1% in total cuts.

Inflation

Current inflation rates are still above the 2% target range. The current range is 2.4% to 2.8% (if you believe governmental data) and is projected to peak between 3% to 3.5% range. Personally, I think above 4% is a real possibility given the tariff policy and supply chain constraints due to geopolitical conflicts and governmental policies.

Stagflation

Stagflation is a period of high inflation and low economic growth. This is a real possibility given inflation is projected to go up and growth is projected to go down. 

Slowing Job Growth

Job growth is slowing and will slow further for the remainder of the year. Some projections are for only 25,000 jobs added each month the rest of the year and unemployment reaching 4.8% by the end of the year.

Slowing Retail Sales

Retail sales are slowing after consumer demand eased after a period of front loading the tariffs. May retail numbers showed a -0.9% decline and this number is expected to get worse for the remainder of 2025. Retail numbers were 2.5% in 2024, this is expected to be 1.2% in 2025.

Macrotrends And Stocks To Consider

Now that we have an idea of where we are potentially heading for the remainder of 2025. What are some potential macrotrends that we should be following?

Inflation Plays

Because inflation is expected to increase, we should look at inflation protection.

Investments like:

• WIW
• LTPZ
• GTIP

LTPZ yields 7.3% and invests in TIPS (which are treasury inflation protected securities). GTIP yields 7.3% and invests in TIPS as well. WIW yields 8.5% and invests in inflation protection investments with a sprinkling of emerging market investments and bonds.

Technology Plays

Technology will continue to carry the markets. For this reason, investments with exposure to AI and robotics should be a primary investment.

• AIPI (38.30%)
• AIO (7.35%)
• FEPI (26.80%)
• QQQI (14.09%)
• QQQT (17.30%)
• NVDY (92.31%)
• NVDW (14.44%)
• GPTY (14.20%)
• PLTW (58.84%)
• CHAT (too soon to tell)

Emerging Market Plays

Consider emerging markets: Countries like India and Vietnam in the Asia-Pacific region present strong growth potential due to industrialization and a rising middle class.

Good places to start your emerging market search: 

• DVYE (10.86%)
• IHD (11.24%)
• AEF (8.36%)
• EDF (14.04%)

Blockchain Plays

Blockchain, blockchain, blockchain. I cannot stress this enough. Don’t be a dinosaur and go extinct. The blockchain, whether you like it or not, is here and here to stay. Might as well make some money from it. Blockchain is different from crypto remember (although crypto is going to be a good investment the rest of the year as well).

Good starting points:

• BKCH (7.20%)
• BITS (27.05%)
• DAPP (3.52%)
• BLOX (20%-23%)
• BLOK (4.54%)

Crypto Plays

Crypto, as mentioned above, is another area of potentially huge gains.

• BITO (55.38%)
• CEPI (41.85%)
• YBTC (43.92%)
• LFGY (31.78%)
• BITX (11.10%) (if you truly believe in Bitcoin as this is a 2x leverage Bitcoin ETF).

Utility Plays

Utilities will continue a strong year. AI requires a shitton of power, and with the grids stressed already, utilities will make money hand over fist.

Good starting place:

• DNP (8.04%)
• TYG (10.46%)
• ES (4.55%)
• POR (5.06%)
• BKH (4.70%)

Volatility Plays

Volatility will be around for quite some time, which sucks because your portfolio balance will be all over the place. BUT, volatility is awesome because you can bargain hunt for dividend growth stocks.

• PEP (4.18%)
• UPS (6.37%)
• CLX (3.82%)
• TGT (4.35%)
• CVX (4.44%)
• XOM (3.45%)
• EPD (6.80%)
• etc. 

REITs, BDCs, And Oil Plays

We know that REITs, BDCs and oil will struggle the remainder of 2025 and into 2026. So you can start investing contrarian and pick up shares of your favorite investments so that when they turn around you already have nice positions and will reap the price appreciation.

Examples include:

• ABR (10.67%)
• IIPR (13.54%)
• TRMD (21.94%)
• HTGC (10.03%)
• CIVI (9.34%)
• TRIN (14.16%)
• etc.

Gold, Silver, And Bitcoin Plays

Until the government gets the debt/deficit under control gold, silver and Bitcoin will always have a place in most portfolios. I do not like physical gold or silver, so we have to look at ETFs.

IMO these are the best plays:

• IGLD (15.54%)
• GLDY (40%)
• GDXY (49.91%)
• SLVO (22.02%)
• GLDI (15.15%)

Bonds Are Coming Back

Bonds, which I thought we overvalued at the end of 2024, seem to be making their way into the buy range again. I love bond funds for this.

My favorites:

• PDI (13.94%)
• YYY (12.29%)
• DSU (11.17%)