The latest economic data just dropped, and it’s painting a rough picture—inflation is rising, consumer sentiment is crashing, and the Atlanta Fed is now projecting an economic contraction worse than 2008. Oh, and tariffs? They’re making everything worse.
My predictions are coming true. Sometimes it sucks to be right.
Inflation, Sentiment, and Markets Are A Total Mess
The latest PCE inflation report is out, and it’s not pretty. Prices rose 0.4% in February, with a 2.8% YOY increase, both flashing red for investors. Remember, PCE excludes energy, which has been keeping inflation somewhat contained in recent reports. If energy prices rise (and they might), expect inflation to run between 3.5% and 4.5%.
Meanwhile, consumer sentiment just fell off a cliff! It’s down 12% from February and 28% YOY. The reason? Holy shit you’ll never guess why. Just kidding, you know it’s tariffs.
Consumers are expecting:
- 🔻 The economy to slump 18% in March
- 📈 Inflation to peak over 5%
- 📉 Unemployment to hit its highest level since 2009
Basically, consumers are spooked and think we’re fucked. And lest you forget, consumers drive the economy. Even if they are incorrect about tariffs or inflation or unemployment, that doesn’t actually matter. What matters is they will spend less because of their perception, which will mean less revenue and contraction in the economy. It’s a vicious circle-jerk.
Manufacturing? Also a Disaster
March PMI came in at 49 (for context: below 50 = contraction, above 50 = expansion). But the real headline? Manufacturing costs exploded—up 11.2% in one month (62.4 → 69.4). That’s insane! This is big and being underreported.
The Fed’s Projection? Even Worse
All this data has led the Atlanta Fed to slash Q1 GDP estimates to -3.7% (from -2.8% last month). For context:
- 📉 COVID crash: -9.5%
- 📉 Great Recession: -2.1%
If the Atlanta estimates are correct, the economy will be shrinking worse than it did during the Great Recession. Let that sink in.
Tariffs: The Final Kick in the Teeth
Our fearless Overlord decided we all had too much money and officially rolled out his tariffs this week. Markets reacted with the 5th worst trading day in history and looks like today will be another bloodbath. He seems oblivious to tariffs being bad economic policy. But we’re feeling it. We just erased a year’s worth of gains in under three months.
🔄 DRIPs are back on—except for YMAX, USOY, CONY & NVDY. We’re holding cash on those and funneling it into pretty much everything else we own.
If we have one more market day like today and the last, we’re in Bear territory. Buckle up.
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