If you’ve been wondering when the labor market would stop cosplaying as “fine”… congratulations, your moment has arrived.
The February jobs report dropped today and it’s not good. Not “uh-oh” bad. More like dumpster fire with a leaf blower pointed at it bad.
And because the universe loves timing, oil prices decided to join the party by launching above $100 a barrel thanks to the “no new wars, America first” war we’re totally not calling a war.
Here’s what mattered, what it means, and what we’re doing.
Economic News
1️⃣ February jobs report: the cracks aren’t cracks anymore
The labor market lost 92,000 jobs in February.
Even better fuel for the fire: December got revised… and not in a cute way. What was previously reported as +48,000 is now 17,000 jobs lost.
We’ve been saying for a while that when you dig deeper, the “foundation cracks” weren’t forming — they were already deep canyons of yuck. This is what happens when you rely on one sector (healthcare) to prop up the labor market… and then that sector hits strikes because, oh I don’t know, people like being paid.
So the real question now is: rough patch… or start of a trend?
Considering 3 of the last 5 months have had job losses, it’s a fair question.
Other pieces you should not ignore:
- Unemployment ticked up to 4.4% from 4.3%
- People unemployed 27+ weeks rose to 25.3% of unemployed
When you combine what we’ve been seeing across ADP, unemployment, and the federal report, it paints a picture like this:
- job openings aren’t there the way they used to be
- unemployed people stay unemployed longer
- then jobs get cut anyway due to revenue pressure, AI, policies, etc.
I’ve said it for months: if healthcare slows down, the labor market is screwed.
Well… welcome to the era of being “attached to another object by an inclined plane, wrapped helically around an axis.” (Big Bang Theory people, you’re seen.)
Takeaway: I suspect we’re just now entering the period of consistently bad labor news — and this was the first big shoe.
2️⃣ Oil: from $60 to $100+ in two weeks (stagflation wants a reunion tour)
Because of the “no new wars, America first” war that we are definitely in, oil prices have shot well above $100 a barrel. For context, two weeks ago we were around $60.
Remember when we talked about stagflation months ago and I’m sure some people thought “wow Tim, relax”?
Yeah. Now the “experts” are suddenly very worried we’re entering stagflation.
Here’s why this matters: the only thing keeping inflation from sneaking back up toward 3.5%–4% was cheap oil. With oil over $100 and no end in sight, inflation pressure goes up — fast.
And it’s not just the price of oil itself.
Shipping is getting messy because carriers are scared to use the shorter route through the Strait of Hormuz, so they’re detouring around the Cape of Good Hope instead.
That detour:
- adds 10–14 days
- and has reportedly raised shipping costs by 50%–100%
Wait until that data trickles in.
Takeaway: higher oil + higher shipping costs = inflation gets another shove upward, even if everything else calms down.
Top 10 IINvestments Going Ex-Dividend Next Week
Starting at the bottom
SPOK
Yes, medical pagers. Yes, pagers are the 80’s. Yes, hospitals still use them because they think it keeps the chaos organized.
SPOK has paid $1.25 annually since 2021. Not a grower, but there are much worse ways to get a ~10% yield.
KRP
KRP is awesome. Mineral royalties = landlord for drilling/mining. They own the land, operators pay “rent,” and KRP takes a cut. Fundamentals don’t look like normal companies — the land and the royalty checks are the whole point.
Variable dividend: $0.35–$0.55/quarter, so if you require consistent payments, this may not be your thing.
But ~15% undervalued, ~11% yield, plus buybacks? Umm yes please.
FDUS / MAIN / TROW
All capital markets, different flavors:
- FDUS (BDC): bonkers yield. Probably not huge price appreciation (maybe 15%–20% over 5 years), but let’s be honest — you’re not here for the price, you’re here for the dividend.
- MAIN (BDC): the gold standard. Monthly dividend ($0.26) and special dividends when things are good… and this one is a special dividend, so yeah, things appear to be good. High-quality monthly payer = respect.
- TROW (asset manager): 40-year dividend growth streak, and at ~$89 it’s comically undervalued.
My conservative 12-month target is $131. “Experts” range $100–$140. With the dividend + EPS growth, I think 10%–12%/yr total return over the next 5 years is very realistic.
GRX / GGN / EDF / SRV (CEFs with different exposures)
- GRX: health & wellness exposure (Merck, J&J, AbbVie, etc.) with much higher income than owning the underlying stocks directly. I wouldn’t pay more than $10.
- GGN: gold + energy (Newmont, Exxon, Chevron, Kinross, Wheaton). Writes options and pays ~6.5%. Trades around NAV; getting it at a ~7.8% discount to NAV is nice. Buy a ~$5.50 CEF and let them do the work.
- EDF: emerging market bonds (Argentina, Ukraine, Mexico, Egypt…). You collect the interest. Emerging markets have been crushing it the last 18–24 months, which helps.
Tim note: EDF looks around NAV now, but historically it trades at an ~8% premium, so yes — it’s undervalued relative to its own normal premium.
Because of the WTF Iran situation, I wouldn’t pay more than $5.25. Even with a 14% cushion, no one knows what’s coming next. - SRV: midstream-heavy plus some utilities and some AI/tech/data center exposure. Structured to trade near NAV, so a ~5% discount to NAV is a buffer… plus the ~12% yield.
But: 66% energy midstream exposure and oil has been hellabonkers lately. Tread lightly. I wouldn’t pay more than $45–$46.
PM
Tobacco = sin stock. 18-year dividend growth streak; 5-year growth rate about 3.5%. “Experts” are bullish: average targets $191–$198; 11 of 13 rate it a buy.
My equations say fair value is $144, so it’s too rich for my blood at current pricing. Also, currency exchange matters because the revenue is outside the U.S.
If the “experts” are right, you could get 15%–19% price appreciation + ~3% dividend.
We currently hold: TROW, SRV, KRP from this list.
In the last 18–24 months we’ve held and sold: MAIN, EDF, GGN, FDUS — which is why I know so much about them (and why you’re stuck reading about them, sorry).
Portfolio Updates
1️⃣ Watchlist adds
We added QCOM, GLPI, REXR, KVUE to the watchlist.
Of the four, QCOM had all the markings of a near-term initiation. The other three are a bit overvalued, so we’re watching.
2️⃣ Two days later… we bought QCOM
Yep. We initiated QCOM with what cash we had: 5 shares.
I didn’t tap dry powder yet because QCOM may drop further. If it hits $120–$123, I’ll consider deploying SBAR dry powder.
Why QCOM?
- If you listened to the 2026 predictions podcast, you know I think 6G is being overlooked.
QCOM has publicly discussed plans to have 6G ready by 2030. That’s not far away. - Combine 6G with the AI angle (faster networks + edge compute + ML/error correction), and the future looks bright.
Then it becomes about valuation:
- “Experts” put fair value from $150 (low) to $190 (high)
- My formula: $160 fair value (~18% undervalued at current price)
Growth + shareholder friendliness:
- EPS growth projected 4%–8%/yr next 5 years
- 23-year dividend growth streak
- historical dividend growth (3/5/10 yr) around 6.3%–6.8%/yr
- and QCOM bought back 56 million shares (buybacks make your shares more valuable)
My projection: 13%–16% annual returns over the next five years.
Simple English: BUY.
3️⃣ Retirement portfolio: used the “not a war” war to rotate
We used the chaos to sell some UAN and recoup our initial investment.
With the UAN proceeds we bought 46 shares of TROW.
As discussed last week: TROW is vastly undervalued, has a 40-year dividend growth streak, and projections put it around 13%–15% total return per year through 2031.
With a ~50% payout ratio and a yield above 5%, we’re adding it to retirement as well.
Want Instant Notifications For These Investing IINsights?
We post these updates to several places where you can subscribe and get notified as soon as we post.
- Substack
- LinkedIn Newsletter
- Our email list (no spam, just 1 email a week). Sign up below.
