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The Only Thing Growing in the Economy Is Confusion

Buckle up, friends — this week’s economic data is giving “I swear I’m fine” energy while clearly not being fine. Shutdown fallout, AI taking everyone’s job (but also saving everyone time?), and a jobs report so suspicious it might actually light itself on fire.

If you needed a reminder that we live in a simulation coded by a drunk intern: this week’s news is it. Let’s dig in.

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Economic News

1️⃣ AI Adoption Explodes — and Nobody’s Talking About It

A new global study from the London School of Economics surveyed 3,000+ workers and 240 execs — and the findings should be getting way more attention:

  • 70% of employees already use AI at work
  • 93% of trained employees use AI
  • 57% of untrained employees STILL use AI
  • AI users save an average of 7.5 hours per week
  • Trained AI users save 11 hours per week (28% of their work time!)
  • 52% of Boomers use AI at work (yes… Boomers)

This report was funded by Protiviti (a tech consulting firm), so yes, grain of salt — but the trend is undeniable: AI isn’t coming… it’s here, it’s everywhere, and it’s freeing up more time than anyone predicted.

2️⃣ NVIDIA Earnings Murk the AI Doomers

So much for “AI bubble.” NVDA absolutely obliterated earnings:

  • Revenue: +67% YoY
  • EPS: +61% YoY

CEO Jensen Huang summarized it perfectly:

“AI is going everywhere, doing everything, all at once.”

AI bears will now pivot to the next fear narrative:

  • “data centers too expensive!”
  • “valuations too high!”
  • “AI compute is unsustainable!”

But let’s be real — they’re just mad they missed the run.

3️⃣ Oh Look — A Jobs Report That Reeks of Bullshit

Since the shutdown paused normal reporting, the September jobs data dropped late, and surprise surprise… it contradicts everything else:

  • +119,000 jobs added (but private ADP said -29,000)
  • Unemployment rose from 4.3% → 4.4%

So either:
A) The regime suddenly became economically competent for the first time this year, or
B) The numbers were fluffed to look pretty right before an election

(I know where my money sits…)

What’s funny is that now that the election is over and the shutdown is over, the October report will NOT be released at all and November’s won’t drop until mid-December.

Look — if you still trust government economic data at face value after this clown show, I don’t know what else to tell you.

Top 10 IINvestments Going Ex-Dividend Next Week

Some caveats before we dive in:

  • TSLX → This month’s dividend is an extra payment (regular $0.46 is next month)
  • GSBD → Same story: extra payment this month, regular $0.32 next month
  • OTCM → This month includes a massive special dividend (normal yield is only 2%)

If you’re thinking about starting a position in any of these three, this is the month you might snag a bonus DRIP or two.

This week’s list includes:

  • 4 BDCs — TSLX, SCM, GSBD, OTCM
  • 2 mREITs — EFC, AGNC
  • 1 CEF — DNP
  • 1 accounting/finance — RHI
  • 1 food stock — NATH
  • 1 airport services — ASR

Not the most diversified list we’ve ever had, but not terrible.

We only hold AGNC, so most of this week was brand-new research.

If I were a newbie? I’d hold my cash until next week and pray for better options. This week’s list is… okay. Not great. Not dumpster fire. Just okay.

Portfolio Updates

1️⃣ Added to ULTI

In the Vanning Portfolio we threw this week’s cash at ULTI, the newborn income ETF. Early days, but we’re curious whether this one behaves better than ULTY (aka: our favorite dumpster fire).

2️⃣ Halved THTA (Dry Powder)

We trimmed our THTA cash reserve to free up capital for something more interesting.

3️⃣ Initiated WPAY (Roundhill’s Version of YMAX)

We used the THTA proceeds to start a position in WPAY, Roundhill’s index-of-all-their-income-ETFs.

WPAY is paying about $0.67/week, so:

  • THTA was paying $20/month
  • WPAY should pay $60/month

Net gain: +$40/month after halving THTA.

Yes please.

4️⃣ Added OZK and AEF

In the Retirement Portfolio we used this week’s cash to add OZK and AEF at lower prices than our last buys.

Dollar Cost Averaging for the win? … Or for the “win-ish”?

Time will tell.

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