Some weeks the data speaks loud and clear—and sometimes it whispers just enough for you to miss the trap. This week, it’s all about misdirection: job numbers that look better than they are, a consumer pulse that’s muddled at best, and markets ignoring the elephant-sized tariff threats knocking at the door.
We’re unpacking what’s real, what’s noise, and what to do with your cash before volatility slaps. Plus, the ex-div list this week has a few quiet bangers, and we made some changes to the portfolios you’ll want to note.
Economic News
1️⃣ The Jobs Report Looks Good… Until You Read It
June’s nonfarm payroll showed +147,000 jobs and a drop in unemployment to 4.1%. That sounds solid—but here’s the kicker:
- Private payrolls dropped by 63,000
- Government (state) jobs jumped by 67,000
- In other words, we didn’t create jobs—we moved them from private to public sector. That’s not growth; that’s a transfer.
Meanwhile:
- Long-term unemployment: 213,000 still unemployed 15+ weeks
- Black unemployment: up by 0.8%, the worst among all demographics
➡️ Translation: The labor market is not as healthy as the headlines suggest. And with this backdrop, a rate cut anytime soon would be wildly irresponsible.
2️⃣ Tariffs Are Back. And This Time They Mean Business
Tariffs that were supposed to kick in this past April were paused for 90 days. That 90-day window just closed. That means the next few weeks = tariff central. Get ready for:
- Unpredictable volatility
- Major whiplash in global trade exposure
- High headline risk = fragile investor sentiment
3️⃣ Even If High Tariffs Are a Low Probability—They’re a High Impact Risk
We’re not saying panic. We’re saying prepare. Even if there’s only a 10%–25% chance of stupidly aggressive tariffs, the potential downside is massive.
So what’s the move?
- Build up cash positions via THTA or BulletShares
- Favor dividend growers over “dividend trappers”
- Turn off DRIPs on your riskier high-yield plays
- Don’t be like the market and pretend the risk isn’t real. Price in the possibility before the fallout happens.
4️⃣ Prime Day Sales Were Up 9.9% YOY… But Why?
Amazon’s big day saw nearly a 10% jump in sales over last year, but it’s unclear whether:
- People are spending more
- Or just paying more due to inflation and early tariff pass-through
We’ll know more in a couple weeks when more granular data hits.
5️⃣ Big Data Drop Incoming
Next week we get:
- PCI report
- Another jobs report
- Tariff fallout (likely)
The result? Buckle up. Expect serious volatility, lots of spin, and more disconnect between market behavior and economic reality. We’ll keep you posted.
Top 10 IINvestments Going Ex-Dividend Next Week
This week’s list may not be flashy, but there are three serious watchlist additions worth your attention:
🔷 SBR
Royalty company (think oil & gas landlord) with:
- ~8% yield
- Wildly high profit margins
- Passively cash-rich business model
🔷 SPMC
A newer BDC (12 months of data), but the numbers slap:
- 25% margins
- Deep undervaluation
- 17% yield
- Looks stronger than several “established” names
🔷 PDCC
Even newer (11 months of data), but:
- 15% yield
- Outstanding margins
- Lower visibility, but what we can see looks 🔥
Bonus: AFG
Ignore the “2.5% yield” you see on sites. They’ve dropped $6 in special divies over the past 9 months—bringing the real yield closer to 7.5%. This one’s sneaky good.
Other notes:
DSU is back in fair value territory. Might be time to revisit bond funds if the winds are shifting.
We currently hold SRV and AFG, and have previously held DSU, OXLC, and CSWC.
Portfolio Updates
1️⃣ Bolstering Positions
We’re still funneling fresh cash into LFGY (loving the payout rhythm and upside) and OZK in the Retirement Portfolio for some core stability.
In our Vanning Portfolio, cash from NVDY profits is being used to build a position in NVDW, which offers more upside while maintaining Nvidia exposure. Think of it as evolution, not rotation.
2️⃣ USOY’s Weekly Payout = Lower Yield
We’ve had 3 weekly payouts now, and it’s clear: yield is ~25% lower than when it paid monthly. It’s still variable, and you’re still getting paid—but if you’re chasing yield, you may want to reassess. USOI offers more consistency, but with a lower yield.
We’re still watching this one as this might just be a volatile time to be buying oil funds.
3️⃣ SCM Swapped for SPMC
Exited SCM with a 1.2% return to enter SPMC, which has:
- 5.5% higher yield
- Better valuation
- Similar payout risk profile
Why settle for 11% when you can get 16.5% from a better operator?
4️⃣ Added 28 Shares of KRP (Vanning Portfolio)
Solid land-based royalty play. Quiet compounder.
That’s a wrap.
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