Welcome back to another week in the economic circus. We’ve got rising prices, shrinking payrolls, and a government shutdown — and yet, the market is celebrating like we all just got stimulus checks.
If this feels upside down, you’re not crazy. Let’s break down what the hell is going on and where the opportunities actually are.
Economic News
1️⃣ Inflation Still Climbing (PCE Report)
The August PCE inflation reading came in… yikes. Prices rose 0.3% in August, pushing YOY inflation to 2.7%. Strip out food and energy (because apparently we don’t eat or drive), and prices were still up 0.2% MoM and 2.9% YoY.
In other words: inflation is not dead, despite the Fed’s best PR spin.
2️⃣ Jobs Market = Dumpster Fire (ADP Report)
September’s ADP private jobs report was ugly. Employers shed 32,000 jobs in September, and August’s numbers were revised from a supposed +54,000 gain to a -3,000 loss.
Translation: two straight months of contraction. But hey, the Fed cut rates 0.25%, so let’s all celebrate while the economy staggers toward stagflation. Rising prices + shrinking jobs = StagToTheEffingFlation. Simple math.
3️⃣ Government Shutdown: 750,000 Workers Furloughed
As of Wednesday, the government is officially shut down. 750,000 federal workers are furloughed, and economic data may stop being released (which I suspect some officials are perfectly fine with). So keep your eyes peeled — the numbers might get even murkier than usual.
Top 10 IINvestments Going Ex-Dividend Next Week
This week’s list is… meh. But hey, sometimes meh is where the data leads.
Breakdown:
- Utility: EIX
- Cell Phone: VZ & TIGO
- mREITs: LOAN, PMT, IVR
- BDCs: MAIN & SAR
- Media: WPP
- Leisure Resort: MTN
Notes:
- TIGO is interesting — overpriced, yes, but with a $0.75 dividend + $1.25 special dividend, it deserves a second look.
- MAIN is also overpriced, but sometimes target prices are just wrong.
- EIX and WPP look attractive on valuation and yield, both on my watchlist for potential buys.
Currently holding VZ only, but may initiate in EIX or WPP if capital frees up.
Portfolio Updates
1️⃣ BDC Watchlist: Not All Created Equal
Given the rate cut environment, lenders are under pressure. That said, SPMC, TRIN, RWAY, HTGC & ARCC still look financially solid. FSK, however, has shown erosion in key financials — not a great buy right now. If you hold it, you can sit tight and hope for a rebound, or sell for a small gain and redeploy elsewhere.
2️⃣ Retirement Portfolio
This week’s cash went into AEF (emerging markets without China exposure) and TGT (still undervalued after its earnings beatdown).
3️⃣ Vanning Portfolio
Cash went into COIW, helping accelerate paydown of the infamous CONY experiment loan. Faster recoup = more flexibility down the road.
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