Some weeks the market feels like a circus—this was one of them. Retail sales got paraded around as a “big win” for the consumer, but when prices are inflated, of course the dollar total goes up. That’s not resilience, that’s arithmetic.
So while the pundits spin narratives and politicians pat themselves on the back, we’re keeping our eyes on what matters: dividend plays, portfolio positioning, and making sure we’re not the last fools holding the bag.
Economic News
1️⃣ Retail Sales: The No Shit Sherlock Report
July retail sales rose 0.5% compared to June, and the market cheered like it was the second coming of Christ. Let’s break that down:
- PPI rose 0.9% in July.
- CPI rose 0.2% in July.
- Add it up, and gee whiz, retail sales rose 0.5%.
Of course they did—because the same dollars buy fewer goods thanks to tariffs. What this report doesn’t measure is pieces sold, just dollars spent. Translation: consumers aren’t getting more, they’re just paying more.
Even the “experts” quietly admitted July’s bump came mostly from middle and higher-income consumers. Low-income households aren’t buying new cars—strip that out, and sales only grew 0.2%.
This complicates rate-cut talk: inflation is still high, labor is weakening but steady, and the consumer is spending. Those are not conditions for rate cuts—if anything, the opposite. We’ll see how the Fed spins it.
2️⃣ Light News Week → Everyone’s On Vacay
The Federal Reserve is holed up in Jackson Hole for their annual meeting (fishing retreat). Until they make decisions everything’s in standby mode, so we’re stepping outside the screens and into the mountains.
Sometimes the best market strategy is a little fresh air. Huh guess the Federal Reserve peeps are onto something.
Top 10 IINvestments Going Ex-Dividend Next Week
Not the most diversified week, but the data says BDCs and mREITs are where the money’s at:
- BDCs: TSLX, OBDC, GSBD, SCM
- mREITs: AGNC, EFC
⚠️ Note: Yields for TSLX, OBDC, and GSBD are trailing 12-month and don’t include special dividends—but those are very real cash in your pocket:
- TSLX adds a $0.05 special on top of its $0.46 dividend (ex-div 09/15).
- OBDC adds a $0.02 special on top of $0.37 (ex-div 09/30).
- GSBD adds a $0.03 special on top of $0.32, plus another $0.16 special (ex-div 09/30).
If these fit your portfolio, buy before the dates, scoop up the specials, and collect again next month.
We currently hold SWKS, AGNC, and LYB. We previously held SCM, EFC, and EPR.
Portfolio Updates
1️⃣ Retirement Portfolio
Added to LTC (healthcare REIT) and TGT (retail dividend king). Target’s earnings selloff gave us another chance to buy on the cheap.
2️⃣ Vanning Portfolio
Put available cash into PTLW. Light week in terms of moves, but we’ll take boring consistency when we can get it.
3️⃣ Hiking > Headlines
The markets were light, our trades were light, so we’re going hiking again. Sometimes that’s the best allocation of energy.
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