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From Global Trade War to Economic Utopia in 72 Hours

Welcome to Trade Wars, Revisionist Math, and the Economy That Never Loses.

Apparently, we’re now flirting with a trade war with Europe over Greenland (yes, that Greenland), GDP numbers keep getting “revised” in the right direction like clockwork, and markets are trying to price all of this in without spilling their drink.

So this week’s email is less about pretending everything is fine and more about asking the obvious questions no one on TV seems willing to ask — while still figuring out where the money actually makes sense to go.

Let’s get into it.

Contents show

Economic News

1️⃣ Trade War Speedrun: Greenland Edition

Agent Orange has the U.S. on the brink of a trade war with Europe — our allies of over 70 years — all over Greenland.

He wants Greenland.
Greenland doesn’t want to be owned.
Europe agrees with Greenland.
So here we are.

Markets don’t love uncertainty, alliances fracturing, or chest-thumping foreign policy — and yet here we are watching all three at once. This is still developing and will take time to shake out, but don’t kid yourself: this isn’t about “national security.”

There’s no policy stopping the U.S. from building bases or stationing troops in Greenland already. The “security” argument is just the classic look over here while I do something over there maneuver.

2️⃣ GDP: Now Even Better Than Before (Somehow)

Q3 GDP was quietly revised upward from 3.8% to 4.4%. Shocking absolutely no one.

Consumer spending rose 3.5% from Q2 to Q3, and here’s the part no one wants to say out loud: tariffs pushed prices higher, so consumers spent more dollars to buy roughly the same stuff.

That’s not organic growth. That’s inflation math.

Q4 GDP drops soon, so expect more numerical gymnastics to support the ongoing “greatest economy in the world” storyline. Stay tuned — the revisions usually come later, in smaller font.

Top 10 IINvestments Going Ex-Dividend Next Week

If you waited in cash last week — congrats. This list is much better.

This week we’ve got:

  • 🏠 Housing REIT: NNN
  • 🎭 Entertainment REIT: EPR
  • 💼 Investment Firm: VRTS
  • 🛢️ Midstream Powerhouse: EPD
  • 🛢️ Lesser-Known Midstream: PAA
  • 🧼 Consumer Staple: CLX
  • 🏦 Mortgage REITs: EFC & SEVN
  • ⚡ Utility CEF: DNP
  • 📈 Large-Cap CEF (97 years old): ADX

A Few Important Notes:

  • SEVN just cut its dividend from $0.35 to $0.28 — not ideal. If you’re choosing between the two mREITs, EFC is the stronger option.
  • PAA issues a K-1. If you’d rather deal with a 1099, PAGP is essentially the same company with similar metrics.
  • VRTS isn’t cheap — but the numbers are ridiculous and justify the price.

We talked about O in the last podcast, and it’s funny how “experts” never seem to mention NNN — despite NNN having:

  • A longer dividend growth streak
  • Better FFO and AFFO
  • Higher projected growth
  • A higher yield

Narratives are powerful. Data is better.

Portfolio Updates

1️⃣ Vanning Portfolio Additions

We deployed some cash into SWKS and MSIF.

  • SWKS has been hammered due to the Qorvo merger news. I suspect this looks ugly now but turns into serious revenue around 2028.
  • MSIF is run by the same team as MAIN, but at a much better valuation. Below $13.50, I’m a buyer every time.

2️⃣ Yes… I Bought a Penny Stock

I couldn’t help myself.

DNGDF yields 2.57%, has:

  • 7-year dividend growth streak
  • Dividend growth of 18% (3-yr) and 22% (5-yr)
  • Revenue growth of 22% over 5 years
  • EPS growth of 25% over 5 years
  • Payout ratio of just 29%

You’re only making a penny per share right now — but not all pennies are trash.
Some of them actually shine.

3️⃣ Retirement Portfolio: Healthcare REIT Switcheroo

We sold LTC at a 10% gain and rotated into DOC.

Why?

  • DOC costs 47% less than LTC
  • Yields are similar (DOC 6.81%, LTC 6.03%)
  • DOC is 32% undervalued vs LTC being fairly valued
  • DOC payout ratio: 67%
  • LTC payout ratio: 83%
  • DOC 5-yr CAGR estimate: 15.2%
  • LTC 5-yr CAGR estimate: 8.7%

Both carry debt — that’s the nature of healthcare REITs — but DOC gives us better growth, better yield security, and more upside for less money.

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